Three quarters of Alberta voters chose to keep the province in Canada yesterday. With 90 percent of ballots counted at the time of this writing, 75.2 percent of referendum voters have chosen to remain in Canada, while just 24.9 percent want to start the separation process.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith had opposed the measure and welcomed the result. She had also put it on the ballot in the first place, however, so now the separatists in her coalition are upset with the outcome. The high turnout suggests there is not really a path forward for another attempt. Alberta decisively rejected the question.
On the other hand, 8 of the remaining 9 referendum questions did pass, including all the immigration-related ones that Smith actually cared about. Aside from the separation question, only Question 8, which would have authorized the government of the province to work with other provinces on a plan to opt out of federal programs, failed, and only by a narrow margin, 50.4 to 49.6 (you can check for updated results here).
The high turnout also means that the measures which did pass now enjoy popular legitimacy. As I recently explained for premium subscribers, the real story in Alberta is a provincial reaction against federal immigration policy. Smith wanted high turnout and got it with a separation referendum she never intended would actually pass. She took a huge risk on good information and it has paid off.
The elite consensus in Canada that citizen concerns about immigration are an automatic slippery slope to national dissolution has been shattered by the result of the referendum. Albertans simply do not connect the two issues the way Ottawa wants to link them. Canada will not break up over an honest conversation about immigration issues. Donald Trump will not make Alberta the 51st state. Mark Carney can cancel his invasion plans.
Canadians do not hate immigrants. As I noted a month ago, Smith does not demonize immigrants as criminals. Rather, Smith gets demonized for speaking to public concerns about housing inflation, the cost of public services, dubious refugee claims, and problems with cultural integration, issues that resonate with most Canadians, according to public opinion polling.
Premier Smith’s approval ratings were consistently in the mid-40s until she announced the referendum. She has taken a big political hit for even holding the referendum at all, and especially for the separation question. I look forward to seeing her future approval polls after Albertans absorb the results of the referendum.
Premium subscribers knew they could expect this result in Alberta. They also know why I do not expect Democrats to do as well as the party hopes in November. If you are a free subscriber, consider upgrading for full content access.
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