Libyan rebels have surrounded and cut off Tripoli. In desperation, Moammar Ghadafi has started launching Scud missiles at Brega, the strategic Eastern city now in rebel hands after weeks of fighting. Tawurga has fallen, putting Ghadafi’s artillery out of range of Misrata. Click map to embiggen.
With Zawiya in rebel hands, the capitol is cut off from resupply of food, fuel, and ammunition. Rebels are still adapting available vehicles for combat, but the government in Tripoli has lost the ability to even move its tanks and trucks, however superior. That leaves the Transitional National Council the only command capable of sustained military action anymore.
For those of you wondering whether the rebels really have the pulse of the people, here is the scene from Surman, the crossroads suburb of Zawiya, when rebels arrived in force:
This has all unfolded in a perfectly predictable manner, but many Western commentators (far too many of them on my side of the aisle) have been minimizing the situation for ideological reasons. The rebels demonstrated their seriousness in February when they started waving the pre-Ghadafi flag; they doubled-down by fighting offensive after offensive. Contrary to what a lot of Westerners “know” about the conflict, it is not something the oil industry wanted:
Energy group Wood Mackenzie in a research note said it’s unlikely oil production from Libya will increase from 100,000 barrels per day to pre-war levels of 1.6 million bpd any time soon, the Platts news service reports.
It would take at least three years for production to return to normal though that scenario depends on the level of war damage to the country’s energy infrastructure.
The Libyans are setting themselves free. Their self-empowerment has enormous potential impact across the Middle East. It means the spotlight can now move to Syria, Algeria, and other crumbling Arab oligarchies. The conditions that set off this conflict have not changed — indeed, they have intensified. We are living in very interesting times.
