Objections to the cost of the Libyan intervention are understandable, and welcome. However, the virtual entirety of OP Odyssey Dawn is coming off-the-shelf: a Tomahawk missile deployed at sea has already been purchased and manufactured, for example. The most expensive form of military power is the individual soldier, behind whom a long logistical train must stretch back to the stores and factories of the MIC. They aren’t needed for this operation, and at the rate of the rebel advance they will never be.
AL-EGILA, Libya (AP) — Libyan rebels took back a key oil town and pushed westward Sunday toward the capital, seizing momentum from the international airstrikes that tipped the balance away from Muammar Gaddafi’s military.
Brega, a main oil export terminal in eastern Libya, fell after a skirmish late Saturday and rebel forces moved swiftly west, seizing the tiny desert town of Al-Egila – a collection of houses and a gas station – on their way to the massive oil refining complex of Ras Lanouf.
“There was no resistance. Gaddafi’s forces just melted away,” said Suleiman Ibrahim, a 31-year-old volunteer, sitting in the back of a pickup truck. “This couldn’t have happened without NATO. They gave us big support.” He said that rebels had already reached Ras Lanouf. (Emphasis mine)
The capture of Ras Lanouf puts most of Libya’s gasoline supply in rebel hands. That’s key to victory, and the effects are already showing:
In Tripoli on Sunday, refined gasoline was in increasingly short supply. Lines of cars at gas stations stretched for several blocks, and some said they had turned out before dawn for a chance to fill up, or waited in line for more than two hours to reach the pump. (Emphasis mine)
Relieving the besieged rebel stronghold of Misrata — a necessary stop in reaching the Tripolitan promontory — will require going through Surt (or Sirte), a Ghaddafi stronghold where he hosted last year’s Arab Summit. The level of resistance there will tell us whether his commanders intend to fight for him. Given that they are rapidly losing the means to move troops to battle, it is entirely possible (though by no means certain) that catastrophic success could occur this week.
Ghaddafi’s defeat doctrine is unclear. Has he pulled back to the promontory to fight a defensive battle, or are formerly loyal tribes reconsidering, melting away, and preparing to switch sides? If they desert him, will he try to run or bunker down? The rebels have said they want him alive, but will he even negotiate? By the time Obama speaks to Congress, the answers may already be known.
