See those lines going up and down like a seismograph? It doesn’t help to pay too much attention to any particular swing. Polls are necessarily lagging indicators in the best of times, and the whole point of a well-financed, organized noisemaker like the tea party is to…well, make noise. With the parties now in a statistical dead heat after weeks of ballyhooed Republican advantage, it’s important to remember that all of politics is local.
Also, there’s this:
For the second time this month, the NBC/WSJ poll results show that the Tea Party has a net negative rating. In the latest poll released today, 36 percent of respondents said they have a somewhat or very negative opinion of the movement, compared with 28 percent who said they view it positively. That’s the highest negative rating for the nebulous political movement since pollsters began asking respondents’ opinion of it in January 2010. (Although it’s worth noting that the negative ratings for the Democratic and Republican parties – at 43 percent apiece – are still worse.) (Emphasis mine)
The tea party has two things going for it when it comes to public opinion: (1) it has never held responsibility for governing, unlike the Dems and the GOP, so it has no ‘record’ to hold against it; (2) it is still “new” and fashionable. The negatives for the tea party are its candidates, every one of whom seems determined to be a gift-that-keeps-on-giving when they win primaries (and unwilling to endorse an establishment opponent when they lose primaries).
Online progressives are reacting positively to the president’s bold campaign moves. ‘Too little, too late’ assumes that the last 50-odd days before an election are not enough time to fire up the Obama voters who brought sweeping victory in 2008, even though the midterm campaign is just now hitting full stride and the Democrats have a funding advantage to use in GOTV efforts.
Moreover, the president’s pledge to “call Republicans on their bluff” over the deficit has led to this:
WASHINGTON — President Obama on Wednesday will make clear that he opposes any compromise that would extend the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy beyond this year, officials said, adding a populist twist to an election-season economic package that is otherwise designed to entice support from big businesses and their Republican allies. (Emphasis mine)
The outcome of midterm elections will be determined one district at a time. Yesterday, the DCCC released a number of internal polls that show Democrats leading House races. Of course, conventional media wisdom will be sure to tell us how this is all bad for Democrats — somehow — and that is actually to their advantage. With expectations driven so low (and on a flimsy basis, I’d argue), it becomes more possible to surprise and shock the political right in America.
