The Grand Old Party held a Waterloo for Obama and then took on the role of Napoleon. Indeed, the “Battle of Health Care” ended more like a protracted siege. The question now is whether they have the sense to exploit the gap and reinforce their success on the way to the next fortified position erected by “the Party of no.”
I would agree with David Frum that conservative forecasts of glorious return to power are overblown:
(1) It’s a good bet that conservatives are over-optimistic about November – by then the economy will have improved and the immediate goodies in the healthcare bill will be reaching key voting blocs.
(2) So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now.
I would go further. By leveraging the Republican Party’s apparent willingness to stick up for big banks, we may be looking at a disaster for the minority this November. A big fight over financial reform? Bring it on. The Party of No can say no all it wants, as far as I’m concerned. In fact, someone should ask the Senate parliamentarian if a Consumer Financial Protection Agency Bureau entity can pass via reconciliation given the giant deficits created by the bailouts so a “watered-down” bill can get through the Senate.
Meanwhile, a series of smaller victories can follow this one. We may not see major reform again until after the election; omnibus bills are where the GOP obstructs and delays, and this experience won’t convince them to say yes to EFCA. Give the Republican Party every opportunity to put themselves on the wrong side of history if they like.
Democrats can repeat this victory on each area of reform and accept “watered down” legislation that needs fixing, declare victory, and then spend campaign season talking about the need to fix the laws they just passed. The CFPA/B may wind up as a signature November issue alongside the public option.
Another very intelligent thing Obama can do: fulfill his threat to use recess appointments. Republicans will accuse him of abusing the privilege, but it is solidly constitutional — and one need only invoke the name of Jim Bunning to counter the meme. Better yet, Obama can release names in daily batches and keep the issue under the radar all summer. Given the way he uses power — quietly and consistently — he probably will.
One important piece of the puzzle Obama should talk up for November: health insurance rate control. If the taxpayer is going to subsidize them, companies should not be able to raise rates willy-nilly.
You gate-crashers see how that works? If the enemy is dug into his defenses, divide your forces and maneuver. The direct approach is not always best, and most often the worst option.
