Economists have long suspected China’s official economic data was worthless. Now the official numbers have gotten so out of sync that no one believes them anymore. From Reuters:The Global Times, controlled by the People’s Daily, the Communist party mouthpiece, reported that the public reacted with “banter and sarcasm” to NBS figures showing average urban wages in China rose 13 per cent in the first half to $2,142.It quoted an online poll showing 88 per cent of respondents doubted the official numbers.
An editorial on Tuesday in the China Daily, the government’s English-language mouthpiece, quoted another survey that found 91 per cent of respondents skeptical of official data, up from 79 per cent in 2007.
While China consistently reports 8% growth, at least one expert on China’s markets sets the real number closer to 2%. An asset bubble is inflating in China’s financial sector; the Communist Party has already forced banks to slow down lending. They also admit the jobs picture looks bleak, but their official figures don’t include migrant workers or college graduates:
Wang said around 147 million migrant workers had moved to cities for jobs by June but more than four million had yet to find one.Moreover, three million university graduates, including those who had left last year, were still unemployed, he said.
Will the global economic downturn force real disclosure on China? It remains to be seen. If it happens, it will be because international investors get spooked by the lack of transparency.
